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1337ness_of_teh_n00b
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:50 pm

and here I was thinking the game was about to get interesting :(

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Melexiious
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:53 pm

I'm pretty sure almost everything -bar serious screw ups- can just be ignored at the start in D-1 at face value.

The only information that's good from D-1 is mainly in retrospect, when it comes into context with who died in the night and who got lynched and all that jazz.
I mean, you can certainly get feelings and inklings from D-1 for sure, but

So yeah, really we just /do/ need more talking. It's useless now, but it'll be more useful later.
But that's pretty obvious so I guess I'm just stating the obvious?
I don't know.

1337ness seems to be acting rather fast, but that could be chalked up to well, his time and experience when playing Mafia.
TSR seems to be posting fluff which is rather hard to avoid when like, in the first 3 pages.
Atlas seems to be acting incredibly logical, which is nice.
I'm, from my perspective not really confident with what I say, because I'm really shit with the metagame for Mafia.

'I'm not a huge fan of people answering accusations directed at other people.'
From how I see it, it's a pretty general idea to those who don't play that much Mafia and don't know the meta all that well. He was almost certainly gonna respond with something along the lines of 'RVS is pretty much irrelevant'

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Melexiious
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:54 pm

whoa, forgot a part

'you can certainly get feelings and inklings from D-1 for sure, but not a serious amount, unless something big happens'

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Melexiious
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:56 pm

Oh, and while I'm at it

UNVOTE

I feel I should probably bring that vote off of me.

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:57 pm

I don't know who else you should be voting for. I'm not your mother and you are not a child so decide for yourself as to who you want to vote for. My random vote seemed to get the conversation rolling and that's all I really wanted it to do.
Similarly to Melexiious I also don't know too much about the Mafia metagame, but I have played enough to know that RVS can lead to some kind of conversation.

Oh, and Unvote
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:00 pm

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:
Tunnel Snakes Rule is holding the game up significantly more than Nathman is, I don't know why Nathman is so interesting to you

I'm not following. Maybe I'm just not experienced enough at Mafia, but how is a person never responding at all not a bigger issue than someone who has already posted and is just taking a while to respond to something.

As far as votes go, I don't think early votes are ever "serious". At this point we have nothing to really go on.

TSR's behaviour has been a bit suspicious (jumping at the first excuse to lynch a townie, and feeling the need to somehow justify their vote), but it's too early to really tell for sure. It's probably better to go for no-lynch respectively Nathman if he doesn't show up soon.

Unvote: Tunnel Snakes Rule
Vote: Nathman
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:04 pm

Iced_Tea wrote:
TSR's behaviour has been a bit suspicious (jumping at the first excuse to lynch a townie, and feeling the need to somehow justify their vote)

Yet you somehow feel the need to tell everyone how much of a townie you are when we're so early into the game?
Voting Nathman wouldn't actually get us anywhere. We'd spend a day lynching him and Mafia get right on to killing someone at night. Maybe waiting for the mod to act on that could lead to a better outcome, or at the very least more discussion.
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Cracked Atlas
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:07 pm

I feel I should step in here and mention the Nathman had just plum forgot about this game. I've reminded him, and he vowed to post before long. So, hopefully we can move on from that area of discussion, for now.

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:10 pm

As I said earlier: I'd consider Nathman to be pretty much the worst D1 lynch.

I'm a bit baffled by everyone's stance of "we need random votes to generate information/discussion so I'mma unvote now", but you obviously can't all be scum. It is, at least, a useful reminder that irrational voting patterns don't always indicate scum (and therefore that my case against TSR is not necessarily as strong as I'd like to think it is).

Hmmm gotta think this over.

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Iced_Tea

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:10 pm

And you get super defensive right away :P

Nah, I'm just trolling.

Lynching Nathman is basically a no-lynch if he's inactive. No-lynch is what I'd prefer he he does show up, btw.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:13 pm

We're not no-lynching. Statistically bad. Will dig up link later if you don't want to do the maths, but as a thought experiment: 1 scum vs. 2 town, 1/3 town win-rate; 1 scum vs. 3 town, 1/4 town win-rate unless they no-lynch. Basically, always lynch at odd numbers, never at evens.

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Cracked Atlas
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:19 pm

I tried to do the maths to work out if a no lynch would actually be good, and the only conclusion I came to is that I'm really not very good at maths.

Never mind, 1337ness already has me covered.

I like 1337ness? I think. He's running his mouth off, and that's usually a good sign. I'm a little cautious of TSR, but that's because I'm reading him scummy, and with TSR that could mean anything.

I really have no idea where I stand with Iced_Tea and oh my God I just got the pun with his profile pic. That's, actually pretty funny.

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Melexiious
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:36 pm

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:
"we need random votes to generate information/discussion so I'mma unvote now"

Look, let's be honest. My vote was literally irrelevant because it was aimed at myself.
So you know, nyeh.

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:
Basically, always lynch at odd numbers, never at evens.

That.. makes sense I guess?
Also, could you bring that link up?

Cracked Atlas wrote:
oh my God I just got the pun with his profile pic. That's, actually pretty funny.

I'm... still very confused.
What is it?

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:03 am

My reasoning behind no-lych was also statistics: At least the non-mafia among us want mafia to die and townies to live. 2/7 of us are mafia, meaning if we hit someone at random (which is essentially what a D1 lynch does unless the mafia players are stupid) we have a 5/7 chance of hitting a townie, which, for most of us, is a bad thing. It's possible that across multiple days it looks different, but you'd have to link the source for that.

Cracked Atlas wrote:
oh my God I just got the pun with his profile pic. That's, actually pretty funny.

Thank you :3

Do I need to explain the pun or nah?
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:14 am

Yeah sure Melexx http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Numbers,_Part_1

If we assume that Orandulum's scumdar is inversely proportional to how important the day is, he can probably peg scum with 100% accuracy right now BUT HE'S NOT POSTING EITHER. I actually have a super secret towntell on him btw and I'm legit 85% sure he's town this game.

Okay Tunnel Snakes, I'll ask again in a different way: for what reason(s) shouldn't I push for your lynch?

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:24 am

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:
Okay Tunnel Snakes, I'll ask again in a different way: for what reason(s) shouldn't I push for your lynch?

I'll respond to the altered question with a similar but altered answer. You shouldn't push for my lynch for the same reasons why you should. It's RVS and getting a tell out of anyone is what RVS is for. A better question is why do you have a "super secret towntell" on him? Would you care to expand on that or is it still too "super secret" for us?
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:30 am

Inb4 1337ness and Orandulum are both mafia and he just gave it away.

How are those numbers relevant to anything? First off, they're based off games starting with night, which is what we would get if we did a no-lynch. Secondly, I don't see the relevance of no-lynch vs lynch in that table anywhere. Maybe I'll have to do the science for myself after all.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:23 am

Day one used to be so much easier when Navarre was around. Though that was really the only thing he was good for.

Unfortunately 1337ness, I only voted Frosted_Anzu because they had the simplest stupid excuse to RVS.
Unvote

I'm not particularly sure about anyone's scuminess, but I am curious so

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:57 am

Vote Count 1.3
(2) Tunnel Snakes Rule - 1337ness_of_teh_n00b, Orandulum L-2!
(1) Nathman - Iced_Tea

Not Voting: Nathman, Cracked Atlas, Melexiious, Tunnel Snake Rule

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

Day One Deadline

Nathman has officially been prodded.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:12 am

Welp, I somehow missed that Iced_Tea had unvoted which completely negates the point of my vote. Ah well, I'll keep it for now, having someone at L-2 it better than not.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:02 pm

I can't quote on mobile. This sucks.

Iced, you were so close to being close to getting the point. Those are night start numbers, which means that if we no-lynch, you look up seven players, but if we lynch, you look up six players. Note that six players into night has a higher win-rate than seven players into night.

Again, think back to the 1 vs. 2/1 vs. 3 thought experiment. Everything ultimately boils down to that.

Your reasoning of "wait until we have more favourable odds" means that we never lynch because the odds are always against us.

Btw there's going to be a mass absence tonight, everyone except Nathman is at Melexx's. Mostly bringing it up for mod's benefit.

Oh, super secret towntell means I don't want Orandulum knowing what it is so that he can't play into it as scum in future games.

Orandulum why TSR?

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:03 pm

Nvm you literally said right there I can't read.

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:04 pm

I don't think it'll result in mass absence, I'm sure we can post every now and then.
Hell, we could all go into different rooms and talk for like, an hour or something.

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:17 pm

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:
Those are night start numbers, which means that if we no-lynch, you look up seven players, but if we lynch, you look up six players. Note that six players into night has a higher win-rate than seven players into night.

I figured that's what you were going for, I got the point. However the table isn't really structured to make a point on no-lynch vs lynch, and only has 1 mafia, we have two. I did however do the maths myself, and if we were to repeatdly random-lynch we would indeed be better off lynching now (we'd still get a <25% win rate, though).

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:
Your reasoning of "wait until we have more favourable odds" means that we never lynch because the odds are always against us.

Seems you missed my point significantly more than I missed yours. My reasoning isn't that we should never lynch if the odds of random-lynching are against us, my reasoning is that we should never random-lynch because the odds of random-lynching are always against us. That's sort of the issue with the entire premise of your table: It assumes only random-lynching, which is a very bad strategy at least after D1.

Assuming we will be able to informed-lynch D2, it might be better to no-lynch now even if the random-lynch table tells us not to. Just looking at this day, we have a 2/7 shot of hitting a mafia, and a 5/7 shot of hitting a townie. 2/7 is 28.6%, that's pretty high so if you guys wanna random-lynch I'm with you. However if we hit a townie (more likely) we're down to 2/5 after the first night, giving us only one townie more than there are scum, I'm not experienced enough at mafia to say whether this is a bad thing, but if it is we probably shouldn't random-lynch.

BTW, is Nathman finally gonna show up?
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia 2016   Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:26 pm

Orandulum wrote:
Welp, I somehow missed that Iced_Tea had unvoted which completely negates the point of my vote. Ah well, I'll keep it for now, having someone at L-2 it better than not.

Nah I'll vote TSR again if I decide to not no-lynch and Nathman finally shows up. If Nathman gets modkilled however it'd be better to no-lynch because numbers.
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